Six Artificial Intelligence Narratives

Framing future AI scenarios to understand what they mean, why they matter, and what to do

Artificial intelligence (AI) will save the world! Artificial intelligence will destroy humanity! Apart from the obvious hype and fear mongering, how do we make sense of this, especially when there isn’t a universally accepted, useful and practical definition of AI, investments or adoption. Even global research organisations such as Gartner has created an AI Immaturity Assessment tool, as there is not yet enough evidence of best practices to determine what maturity looks like. In this context, how do companies make good investment decisions, and government good policies and regulation, when the reality is highly complex and uncertain?

AI Rubik’s Cube

When it comes to AI, reality is far more nuanced than just good or bad. It doesn’t just mean one thing—it varies greatly depending on geography, sector and activist. In today’s rapidly evolving technology landscape, understanding AI requires deeper reflection, conversation and collaboration, recognizing its diverse applications and implications across different ecosystems. To harness AI’s full potential, organisations must navigate this complexity, adapting AI strategies that align with their unique needs and environments.

When we enter an era of exponential change our old mental models are no longer reliable guides to our complex and rapidly evolving reality. Narratives provides a tool to establish the contours of the future. Every day, we’re exposed to new AI thinking and solutions. The performance to cost of compute power is increasing exponentially and so much seems possible, yet we know to be realistic and not believe some of the hype surrounding AI. However, this all seems a bit like a scrambled AI Rubik’s cube where the AI squares form a random pattern and makes little sense.

In trying to unscramble this metaphorical AI Rubik’s cube, we have attempted to rearrange the squares into coherent narratives (colours). Multiple narratives, or viewpoints, enable us to understand something as complex as AI and what is means for us, personally, in our work and leisure situations.

Six AI Narratives

This report provides six AI narratives, that Technology Connect believe can be used to frame future AI scenarios, what they mean and why they matter. The purpose is not to be right about one narrative, but to contribute to the dialogue of this critical topic and hopefully illuminate the merits of perspectives other than our initial thinking.

With something as complex as AI, it is naturally almost impossible to definitively boil this down to six narratives. We don’t pretend to do this. However, we the narratives in Figure 1 that we believe captures the essence of the AI era we live in and provides a platform for further exploration, collaboration and decision-making behaviour.

Figure 1: Six AI Narratives

Source: Technology Connect*

The Utopian narrative envisions AI as a transformative force that will lead to unprecedented levels of prosperity, efficiency, and quality of life. Proponents believe AI will solve many of humanity’s biggest challenges, from healthcare to environmental sustainability, and usher in a new era of abundance and well-being. In this scenario singularity will happen in less than 25 years and the first people to live to 1,000 years old are already born.

In contrast is the Dystopian narrative, that warns of the potential dangers and negative consequences of AI. This perspective highlights risks such as mass unemployment, loss of privacy, and the possibility of AI systems becoming uncontrollable and harmful to humanity. In this scenario, humanity is in grave danger of destroying itself.

The Utopian and Dystopian narratives constitute the top and bottom sides of the AI Rubik’s cube, and the four middle sides are described below.

The Corporate Power narrative speculates that large technology companies, such as Apple, Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Meta (Facebook) and Microsoft, will become increasingly dominant and powerful, potentially surpassing the influence of large nation-states. This narrative highlight concerns about the concentration of power and control over AI technologies within a few mega-corporations. These companies have vast resources, data, and talent, enabling them to drive AI innovation and deployment at a scale that smaller entities cannot match. The narrative also raises questions about the implications for competition, privacy, and democratic governance, as these corporations could wield significant influence over global economies and societies.

The Geopolitical narrative focuses on the competition and strategic rivalry between nations and large trade blocs over AI dominance. This narrative is particularly concerned with the technological and economic race between the United States and China, as both countries invest heavily in AI to gain a competitive edge. It examines how AI is becoming a critical factor in national security, economic power, and global influence. The narrative also explores the potential for AI to exacerbate geopolitical tensions, lead to an arms race in AI technologies, and create new forms of cyber warfare and espionage.

The Left-leaning AI narrative emphasises the ethical implications of AI and its impact on social equity, humanity and climate. This perspective advocates for robust regulations to ensure AI systems are transparent, accountable, and free from bias and helping to combat climate change. It focuses on using AI to enhance public services, protect workers, and reduce inequality. In this narrative, AI has potential to be good for humanity, if we can agree on, and adhere to, collectively designed guardrails. However, for proponents of this narrative, AI is progressing uncomfortably fast.

The Right-leaning AI narrative emphasizes AI as a driver of global economic growth, national competitiveness, and free-market innovation. This perspective advocates for minimal government intervention, allowing market forces to guide AI development and adoption. It focuses on leveraging AI to optimise international trade, boost productivity, and enhance national security. In this narrative, regulation is not ignored, but perceived as something that needs to be of pragmatic nature and not constrain the desired fast pace with which new AI solutions can be commercialised.

Concepts, Language and Metaphors

Each of the above narratives are characterised by concepts, language and metaphors. Table 1 below provides a summary across the six AI narratives:

Table 1: Concepts, Language and Metaphors

Source: Technology Connect

Narratives are important input into scenario planning and strategy development, where an understanding of the external environment and driving forces are considered in combination with internal drivers such as corporate objectives, values and operating model. In this context, each narrative represents a scenario with opportunities and threats to companies’ future market position and profitability. Scenarios inform our thoughts of a perceived future and influence what investment decisions or strategic “bets” to place. Depending on which narrative, or combination thereof, a company considers most likely, key investment considerations includes:

In the Utopia narrative, heavy investments in R&D are required to be at the forefront of breakthroughs, including people, hardware and software. Proponents are preparing for rapid societal changes and new market opportunities. Investments will focus on sectors with major positive societal impacts such as healthcare and climate solutions.
In the Dystopian narrative, companies prioritise AI safety research and responsible development practices. Contingency plans are developed for AI-related crises and drives a resilience focus. As AI is expected to disrupt most jobs, reskilling programs are prioritised.

In the Corporate Power narrative alliances and partnerships are formed with the large tech companies or as a coalition outside of the tech companies to maintain competitiveness. The tech companies are expected to aggressively pursue AI to maintain a competitive edge alone and as a small group of global power players.

The Geopolitical narrative consider alignment of AI strategy with national interest and policies. It considers geopolitical risks in global AI deployment and explores collaborations with governments and defence agencies.

Left-leaning considerations prioritise ethical AI development and bias mitigation. AI application investments must consider social impacts and companies are preparing for stricter AI regulation and oversight.

Right-leaning considerations are naturally focused on AI applications to drive productivity and efficiency gains. Proponents of this narrative envision a more deregulated, market-driven AI landscape favouring accelerated AI investments to achieve first-mover advantages.

Where to from here?

Presenting the six AI narratives within an overarching framework provides a better sense of the nuances and effects of its ramifications and lays the groundwork for scenario planning, strategic investments and policies. Embracing difference, uncertainty, and tension instead of seeking to reduce AI into simple, one-way approaches to seeing, thinking and feeling, encourages dialogue, collaboration, co-design and “both/and”, rather than “either/or” thinking, to decide how AI can enhance our lives and not leave anyone behind.

If interested in exploring future AI scenarios as part of strategic planning or policy development, then connect with us.

* In writing this paper, we have taken inspiration from Anthea Roberts and Nicolas Lamp’s book: Six Faces of Globalisation – Who Wins, Who Loses, And Why It Matters (2021). A great read, especially if you wish to broaden your view on different globalisation narratives. Roberts and Lamp also use the Rubik’s cube as a metaphor for globalisation scenarios.

Tom Dissing is the founder and Managing Director of Technology Connect. He has deep expertise in helping companies digitally transform and scale their businesses through better, faster and smarter use of emerging technology and optimising value from ecosystems of supplier capabilities. Tom is a trusted advisor to procurement, technology and finance executives and senior management teams. He has advised senior executives in Financial Services (Banking, Insurance, Wealth and Superannuation), Media & Entertainment, Construction & Engineering, Technology Services and Government (Federal and State) in Australia, New Zealand, Asia and Europe.

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