The Centaur Clock is Ticking – AI Disruption Now Scales in Half the Time

In 2016, it took an average of 10.2 years for a software company to become a “centaur” (reaching US$100m in Annual Recurring Revenue). By 2025, that number is projected to drop to 7.5 years – and AI-native companies are achieving it in as little as 5.7 years (and a full year faster than 2024). The fastest cohort of AI start-ups are reaching Centaur status in 1.5 years. For incumbent SaaS firms, this compression of time has profound strategic implications. Boards and executives must rethink how they allocate capital, govern innovation, and future-proof their businesses.

What This Means for Incumbents
The acceleration from a decade to under six years changes the competitive landscape fundamentally. AI-native challengers can achieve scale and market relevance in almost half the time incumbents once expected. This shift means:

• The window for strategic response is shorter. Assuming a 5-year horizon to react is no longer viable. “Wait and see” strategies are riskier – competitors can become centaurs in the time it takes to finish a transformation program.
• Outcome-based pricing models are replacing per-user or per-seat approaches, threatening legacy economics. Refer to companies such as Intercom for a playbook of how to become an AU-native business using outcome-based pricing.
• Traditional moats such as distribution, service infrastructure, and headcount are being eroded by AI-driven efficiency. AI-native businesses reach scale with fewer people and less capital due to automation, data leverage, and AI agents.

Key Takeaways
Boards and executives should take away three urgent lessons from this trend:

• Shorten strategic review and capital allocation cycles. The old pace of governance is misaligned with AI-native disruption.
• Adopt new metrics. Traditional ARR growth and churn are insufficient. Boards must track outcome-based revenue, AI-driven unit economics, and time-to-market for AI ventures.
• Invest ambidextrously. Balance exploitation of the core business with exploration of AI-native ventures that operate under new rules of competition.

What To Do Now

Bottom Line

Technology incumbents can no longer rely on incremental innovation or comfortable timelines. Boards that act with urgency, rethink their metrics, and embrace ambidextrous strategies will position their organisations to compete effectively in the AI-native era.

If interested in exploring how you could benefit from building your AI-native Venture, then connect with us.

Tom Dissing is the founder and Managing Director of Technology Connect. He helps boards and executives drive growth and avoid disruption through artificial intelligence (AI), innovation and venture building

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